Spatial modelling of plants species distribution


The Spatial Ecology group at the University of Lausanne is specialized in predictive habitat distribution modeling, mainly at the level of species, but also at the level of communities and habitat types.

This approach is currently being developed and tested as tools for the management or rare and endangered species, for evaluating the invasive potential of neophytes plant species, for evaluating landscape diversity and fragmentation, as well as for preparing scenarios of climate change impact on plant species distribution, diversity and communities. More dynamic models are also being developed for simulating the spread of species in the landscape, for instance after a climatic change or to simulate invasion processes. Finally, the set-up of permanent observation plots for monitoring the flora and fauna is another development of our group. It aims at testing, in a near or later future, the validity of our models and scenarios.

Our preferred study areas are alpine landscapes of the Swiss Prealps of Vaud and the national scale. Modeled species include Eryngium alpinum (rare and threatened) and Ambrosia artemisiifolia (invasive). We also use simulation, such as virtual species in a real landscape, to solve methodological problems and questions.

Recent Publications

  • Alteration of Bumblebee Venom Composition toward Higher Elevation
    Barkan, Nezahat Pinar; Chevalier, Mathieu; Pradervand, Jean-Nicolas; Guisan, Antoine
    Toxins 12 (1) Article Number: 4 DOI: 10.3390/toxins12010004 JAN 2020
  • Eco-genetic additivity of diploids in allopolyploid wild wheats
    Huynh, Stella; Broennimann, Olivier; Guisan, Antoine; Felber, Francois; Parisod, Christian
    Ecology Letters, DOI: 10.1111/ele.13466, Early Access: FEB 2020
  • What are the most crucial soil variables for predicting the distribution of mountain plant species? A comprehensive study in the Swiss Alps
    Buri, Aline; Grand, Stephanie; Yashiro, Erika; Adatte, Thierry; Spangenberg, Jorge E.; et al.
    Journal Of Biogeography, DOI: 10.1111/jbi.13803, Early Access: JAN 2020
  • How to evaluate community predictions without thresholding?
    Scherrer, Daniel; Mod, Heidi K.; Guisan, Antoine
    Methods In Ecology And Evolution,, JAN 2020
  • Reconstructing the climatic niche breadth of land use for animal production during the African Holocene
    Phelps, Leanne N.; Broennimann, Olivier; Manning, Katie; Timpson, Adrian; Jousse, Helene; et al.
    Global Ecology And Biogeography,  DOI: 10.1111/geb.13015, Published: JAN 2020
  • Influence of microclimate and geomorphological factors on alpine vegetation in the Western Swiss Alps
    Giaccone, Elisa; Luoto, Miska; Vittoz, Pascal; Guisan, Antoine; Mariethoz, Gregoire; et al.
    Earth Surface Processes And Landforms,  DOI: 10.1002/esp.4715, Published: DEC 2019
  • Soil protist diversity in the Swiss western Alps is better predicted by topo-climatic than by edaphic variables
    Seppey, Christophe V. W.; Broennimann, Olivier; Buri, Aline; Yashiro, Erika; Pinto-Figueroa, Eric; et al.
    Journal Of Biogeography,  DOI: 10.1111/jbi.13755, Early Access: DEC 2019
  • Scaling the linkage between environmental niches and functional traits for improved spatial predictions of biological communities
    Guisan, A; Mod, HK; Scherrer, D; Munkemuller, T; Pottier, J; Alexander, JM; D'Amen, M
    GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY, 28 (10):1384-1392; 10.1111/geb.12967 OCT 2019
  • Predicting species occurrences with habitat network models
    Ortiz-Rodriguez, Damian O.; Guisan, Antoine; Holderegger, Rolf; van Strien, Maarten J.
    Ecology And Evolution,  DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5567, Published: SEP 2019
  • Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes
    Harrison, PA; Harmackova, ZV; Karabulut, AA; Brotons, L; Cantele, M; Claudet, J; Dunford, RW; Guisan, A; Holman, IP; Jacobs, S; Kok, K; Lobanova, A; Moran-Ordonez, A; Pedde, S; Rixen, C; Santos-Martin, F; Schlaepfer, MA; Solidoro, C; Sonrel, A; Hauck, J
    ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY, 24 (2):10.5751/ES-10818-240227 JUL 2019
  • A comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of 33 species distribution models at species and community levels
    Norberg, A; Abrego, N; Blanchet, FG; Adler, FR; Anderson, BJ; Anttila, J; Araujo, MB; Dallas, T; Dunson, D; Elith, J; Foster, SD; Fox, R; Franklin, J; Godsoe, W; Guisan, A; O'Hara, B; Hill, NA; Holt, RD; Hui, FKC; Husby, M; Kalas, JA; Lehikoinen, A; Luoto, M; Mod, HK; Newell, G; Renner, I; Roslin, T; Soininen, J; Thuiller, W; Vanhatalo, J; Warton, D; White, M; Zimmermann, NE; Gravel, D; Ovaskainen, O
    ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS, 89 (3):10.1002/ecm.1370 AUG 2019
  • Genetic diversity in frogs linked to past and future climate changes on the roof of the world
    Hu, JH; Huang, Y; Jiang, JP; Guisan, A
    JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, 88 (6):953-963; 10.1111/1365-2656.12974 JUN 2019
  • Climate and land-use changes reshuffle politically-weighted priority areas of mountain biodiversity
    Vincent, C; Fernandes, RF; Cardoso, AR; Broennimann, O; Di Cola, V; D'Amen, M; Ursenbacher, S; Schmidt, BR; Pradervand, JN; Pellissier, L; Guisan, A
    GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION, 17 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00589 JAN 2019
  • Species distribution models support the need of international cooperation towards successful management of plant invasions
    Fernandes, RF; Honrado, JP; Guisan, A; Roxo, A; Alves, P; Martins, J; Vicente, JR
    JOURNAL FOR NATURE CONSERVATION, 49 85-94; 10.1016/j.jnc.2019.04.001 JUN 2019
  • Spatial modelling of soil water holding capacity improves models of plant distributions in mountain landscapes
    Cianfrani, C; Buri, A; Vittoz, P; Grand, S; Zingg, B; Verrecchia, E; Guisan, A
    PLANT AND SOIL, 438 (1-2):57-70; 10.1007/s11104-019-04016-x MAY 2019
  • Modelling bat distributions and diversity in a mountain landscape using focal predictors in ensemble of small models
    Scherrer, Daniel; Christe, Philippe; Guisan, Antoine
    DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, 25 (5):770-782; 10.1111/ddi.12893 MAY 2019
  • Hierarchical species distribution models in support of vegetation conservation at the landscape scale
    Mateo, RG; Gaston, A; Aroca-Fernandez, MJ; Broennimann, O; Guisan, A; Saura, S; Garcia-Vinas, JI
    JOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, 30 (2):386-396; 10.1111/jvs.12726 MAR 2019
  • Climate and land-use changes reshuffle politically-weighted priority areas of mountain biodiversity
    Vincent, C; Fernandes, RF; Cardoso, AR; Broennimann, O; Di Cola, V; D'Amen, M; Ursenbacher, S; Schmidt, BR; Pradervand, JN; Pellissier, L; Guisan, A
    GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION, 17 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00589 JAN 2019
  • Archaeorhizomycetes Spatial Distribution in Soils Along Wide Elevational and Environmental Gradients Reveal Co-abundance Patterns With Other Fungal Saprobes and Potential Weathering Capacities
    Pinto-Figueroa, EA; Seddon, E; Yashiro, E; Buri, A; Niculita-Hirzel, H; van der Meer, JR; Guisan, A
    FRONTIERS IN MICROBIOLOGY, 10 10.3389/fmicb.2019.00656 APR 4 2019
  • A minimalist model of extinction and range dynamics of virtual mountain species driven by warming temperatures
    Giezendanner, J; Bertuzzo, E; Pasetto, D; Guisan, A; Rinaldo, A
    PLOS ONE, 14 (3):10.1371/journal.pone.0213775 MAR 18 2019
  • Of niches and distributions: range size increases with niche breadth both globally and regionally but regional estimates poorly relate to global estimates
    Kambach, S; Lenoir, J; Decocq, G; Welk, E; Seidler, G; Dullinger, S; Gegout, JC; Guisan, A; Pauli, H; Svenning, JC; Vittoz, P; Wohlgemuth, T; Zimmermann, NE; Bruelheide, H
    ECOGRAPHY, 42 (3):467-477; 10.1111/ecog.03495 MAR 2019
Guisan Antoine

Prof. Dr. Antoine Guisan
University of Lausanne
Department of Ecology and Evolution
1015 Lausanne

Tel: +41 (0)21 692 42 54

Research topics

  • Plant species – environment relationships
  • Environmental niche stability in space and time
  • Rare plant species modelling, model-based sampling,
  • Anticipating plant invasions, weed risk assessments
  • Climate threat to plant diversity, predicting range shifts and extinctions
  • Dispersal modelling and future plant migrations in fragmented landscapes
  • Assembling species predictions into communities, biotic interactions
  • Spatial modelling of functional and phylogenetic plant diversity