Spatial modelling of plants species distribution


The Spatial Ecology group at the University of Lausanne is specialized in predictive habitat distribution modeling, mainly at the level of species, but also at the level of communities and habitat types.

This approach is currently being developed and tested as tools for the management or rare and endangered species, for evaluating the invasive potential of neophytes plant species, for evaluating landscape diversity and fragmentation, as well as for preparing scenarios of climate change impact on plant species distribution, diversity and communities. More dynamic models are also being developed for simulating the spread of species in the landscape, for instance after a climatic change or to simulate invasion processes. Finally, the set-up of permanent observation plots for monitoring the flora and fauna is another development of our group. It aims at testing, in a near or later future, the validity of our models and scenarios.

Our preferred study areas are alpine landscapes of the Swiss Prealps of Vaud and the national scale. Modeled species include Eryngium alpinum (rare and threatened) and Ambrosia artemisiifolia (invasive). We also use simulation, such as virtual species in a real landscape, to solve methodological problems and questions.

Recent Publications

  • Distance to native climatic niche margins explains establishment success of alien mammals
    Broennimann, Olivier; Petitpierre, Blaise; Chevalier, Mathieu; Gonzalez-Suarez, Manuela; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; et al.
    Nature Communications 10.1038/s41467-021-22693-0 Published: APR 21 2021
  • Low spatial autocorrelation in mountain biodiversity data and model residuals
    Chevalier, Mathieu; Mod, Heidi; Broennimann, Olivier; Di Cola, Valeria; Schmid, Sarah; Niculita-Hirzel, Helene; Pradervand, Jean-Nicolas; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Ursenbacher, Sylvain; Pellissier, Loic; Guisan, Antoine
    Ecosphere  10.1002/ecs2.3403 Published: MAR 2021
  • National assessments of species vulnerability to climate change strongly depend on selected data sources
    Scherrer, Daniel; Esperon-Rodriguez, Manuel; Beaumont, Linda J.; Barradas, Victor L.; Guisan, Antoine
    Diversity And Distributions 10.1111/ddi.13275  Early Access: MAY 2021
  • Predicting spatial patterns of soil bacteria under current and future environmental conditions
    Mod, Heidi K.; Buri, Aline; Yashiro, Erika; Guex, Nicolas; Malard, Lucie; et al.
    Isme Journal 10.1038/s41396-021-00947-5   Early Access: MAR 2021
  • Temporal variability is key to modelling the climatic niche
    Angeles Perez-Navarro, Maria; Broennimann, Olivier; Angel Esteve, Miguel; Miguel Moya-Perez, Juan; Francisca Carreno, Maria; et al.
    Diversity And Distributions   DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13207 MAR 2021
  • Intraspecific differentiation: Implications for niche and distribution modelling
    Collart, Flavien; Hedenas, Lars; Broennimann, Olivier; Guisan, Antoine; Vanderpoorten, Alain
    Journal Of Biogeography   DOI: 10.1111/jbi.14009  FEB 2021
  • A quantitative assessment of rockfall influence on forest structure in the Swiss Alps
    Moos, Christine; Khelidj, Nora; Guisan, Antoine; Lischke, Heike; Randin, Christophe F.
    European Journal Of Forest Research  DOI: 10.1007/s10342-020-01317-0  FEB 2021
  • Greater topoclimatic control of above- versus below-ground communities
    Mod, Heidi K.; Scherrer, Daniel; Di Cola, Valeria; Broennimann, Olivier; Blandenier, Quentin; et al.
    Global Change Biology  DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15330  DEC 2020
  • Fine-scale tundra vegetation patterns are strongly related to winter thermal conditions
    Niittynen, Pekka; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Aalto, Juha; Guisan, Antoine; Kemppinen, Julia; et al.
    Nature Climate Change  DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00916-4  DEC 2020
  • Greater topoclimatic control of above- versus below-ground communities
    Mod HK; Scherrer D; Di Cola V; Broennimann O; Blandenier Q;  Breiner, FT; Buri A; Goudet, J; Guex, N; Lara, E; Mitchell, EAD; Niculita-Hirzel, H; Pagni, M; Pellissier, L; Pinto-Figueroa, E; Sanders, IR; Schmidt, BR; Seppey, CVW; Singer, D; Ursenbacher, S; Yashiro, E; van der Meer, JR; Guisan, A
    Global Change Biology  DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15330  DEC 2020
  • Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities
    Zanatta, F.; Engler, R.; Collart, F.; Broennimann, O.; Mateo, R. G.; et al.
    Nature Communications  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19410-8    NOV 5 2020
  • The fate of paramo plant assemblages in the sky islands of the northern Andes
    Peyre, Gwendolyn; Lenoir, Jonathan; Karger, Dirk N.; Gomez, Monica; Gonzalez, Alexander; et al.
    Journal Of Vegetation Science  DOI: 10.1111/jvs.12898 Published: NOV 2020
  • Competition and demography rather than dispersal limitation slow down upward shifts of trees' upper elevation limits in the Alps
    Scherrer, Daniel; Vitasse, Yann; Guisan, Antoine; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Lischke, Heike
    Journal Of Ecology  DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13451   NOV 2020
  • Hybridization and hybrid zone stability between two lizards explained by population genetics and niche quantification
    Cabana, Imanol; Chiaraviglio, Margarita; Di Cola, Valeria; Guisan, Antoine; Broennimann, Olivier; et al.
    Zoological Journal Of The Linnean Society  DOI: 10.1093/zoolinnean/zlaa018 OCT 2020
  • Integrating ecosystem services within spatial biodiversity conservation prioritization in the Alps
    Ramel, Cindy; Rey, Pierre-Louis; Fernandes, Rui; Vincent, Claire; Cardoso, Ana R.; et al.
    Ecosystem Services  DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101186  OCT 2020
  • The feeding behaviour of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis, L. 1758) is not a threat for other endangered species
    Ducotterd, Charlotte; Crovadore, Julien; Lefort, Francois; Guisan, Antoine; Ursenbacher, Sylvain; et al.
    Global Ecology And Conservation  DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01133 SEP 2020
  • A standard protocol for reporting species distribution models
    Zurell, Damaris; Franklin, Janet; Koenig, Christian; Bouchet, Phil J.; Dormann, Carsten F.; et al.
    Ecography  DOI: 10.1111/ecog.04960  Published: SEP 2020
  • Scale dependence of ecological assembly rules: Insights from empirical datasets and joint species distribution modelling
    Mod, Heidi K.; Chevalier, Mathieu; Luoto, Miska; Guisan, Antoine
    Journal Of Ecology  DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13434  Published: SEP 2020
  • Asymmetric response of forest and grassy biomes to climate variability across the African Humid Period: influenced by anthropogenic disturbance?
    Phelps, Leanne N.; Chevalier, Manuel; Shanahan, Timothy M.; Aleman, Julie C.; Courtney-Mustaphi, Colin; et al.
    Ecography   DOI: 10.1111/ecog.04990 Published: AUG 2020
  • Global gradients in intraspecific variation in vegetative and floral traits are partially associated with climate and species richness
    Kuppler, Jonas; Albert, Cecile H.; Ames, Gregory M.; Armbruster, William Scott; Boenisch, Gerhard; et al.
    Global Ecology And Biogeography  DOI: 10.1111/geb.13077 Published: JUN 2020
  • Integrated Methods for Monitoring the Invasive Potential and Management of Heracleum mantegazzianum (giant hogweed) in Switzerland
    Shackleton, Ross T.; Petitpierre, Blaise; Pajkovic, Mila; Dessimoz, Florian; Broennimann, Olivier; et al.
    Environmental Management   DOI: 10.1007/s00267-020-01282-9  MAR 2020
  • Monitoring biodiversity in the Anthropocene using remote sensing in species distribution models
    Randin, Christophe F.; Ashcroft, Michael B.; Bolliger, Janine; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Coops, Nicholas C.; et al.
    Remote Sensing Of Environment  DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2019.111626, Published: MAR 15 2020
  • Alteration of Bumblebee Venom Composition toward Higher Elevation
    Barkan, Nezahat Pinar; Chevalier, Mathieu; Pradervand, Jean-Nicolas; Guisan, Antoine
    Toxins 12 (1) Article Number: 4 DOI: 10.3390/toxins12010004 JAN 2020
  • Eco-genetic additivity of diploids in allopolyploid wild wheats
    Huynh, Stella; Broennimann, Olivier; Guisan, Antoine; Felber, Francois; Parisod, Christian
    Ecology Letters, DOI: 10.1111/ele.13466, Early Access: FEB 2020
  • What are the most crucial soil variables for predicting the distribution of mountain plant species? A comprehensive study in the Swiss Alps
    Buri, Aline; Grand, Stephanie; Yashiro, Erika; Adatte, Thierry; Spangenberg, Jorge E.; et al.
    Journal Of Biogeography, DOI: 10.1111/jbi.13803, Early Access: JAN 2020
  • How to evaluate community predictions without thresholding?
    Scherrer, Daniel; Mod, Heidi K.; Guisan, Antoine
    Methods In Ecology And Evolution,, JAN 2020
  • Reconstructing the climatic niche breadth of land use for animal production during the African Holocene
    Phelps, Leanne N.; Broennimann, Olivier; Manning, Katie; Timpson, Adrian; Jousse, Helene; et al.
    Global Ecology And Biogeography,  DOI: 10.1111/geb.13015, Published: JAN 2020
Guisan Antoine

Prof. Dr. Antoine Guisan
University of Lausanne
Department of Ecology and Evolution
1015 Lausanne

Tel: +41 (0)21 692 42 54

Research topics

  • Plant species – environment relationships
  • Environmental niche stability in space and time
  • Rare plant species modelling, model-based sampling,
  • Anticipating plant invasions, weed risk assessments
  • Climate threat to plant diversity, predicting range shifts and extinctions
  • Dispersal modelling and future plant migrations in fragmented landscapes
  • Assembling species predictions into communities, biotic interactions
  • Spatial modelling of functional and phylogenetic plant diversity